Iran is 10 days into one of the most extreme internet shutdowns in history, with 92 million citizens cut off from all internet services and even disruption to phone and text messaging.
The Iranian government cut off services on 8 January, apparently to stifle dissent and prevent international scrutiny of a government crack down on protesters.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the internet was cut off in response to what he described as externally directed terrorist operations.
The government has not said when internet services will return, but new reports suggest that, behind the scenes, the authorities may be making plans to restrict it permanently.
On 15 January, the news website IranWire reported that government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told journalists that international web access will not be available until at least the Iranian New Year in late March.
Internet freedom observers at FilterWatch believe the government is hastily implementing new systems and rules to cut Iran off from the international internet.
There should be no expectation of reopening international internet access, and even afterwards, users' access to international internet will never return to its previous form, FilterWatch said, citing unnamed government sources.
While the BBC cannot independently verify this report or the timing of its implementation, journalists who spoke to BBC Persian also said they were told that internet access would not be restored anytime soon.
From temporary outage to "communication black hole"
Iran has maintained a tight grip over the internet for many years, with most western social media apps and platforms blocked, as well as external news websites like BBC News.
However, many people have managed to access popular apps such as Instagram using Virtual Private Networks (VPNs).
Internet freedom campaigners at Access Now say Iran has consistently used shutdowns as a way to mask mass violence and brutal crackdowns on protesters, as seen during the nationwide internet shutdowns during the November 2019 and September 2022 protests.
The current blackout has lasted longer than any previous shutdown.
In a public statement, the charity Access Now said that full restoration of internet access is imperative.
Restricting access to these essential services not only endanger lives but embolden authorities to conceal and evade accountability for human rights abuses, it said.
Already there are reports that livelihoods in Iran are being badly impacted by the shutdown with e-commerce particularly affected.
As of 18 January, the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) estimates that more than 3,300 confirmed protester deaths have been recorded, with more than 4,380 cases under review. It also reports that the number of arrests has reached 24,266 across 187 cities.
The real number of people killed and detained is believed to be significantly higher, but the lack of access means the figures cannot be independently verified.
Who decides about the Internet?
According to FilterWatch, the plans are not being spoken about publicly, with key decisions increasingly concentrated within security bodies rather than civilian ministries.
Protecting Iran from cyber attacks - of which there have been many high profile and disruptive cases in recent years - may be another motivation for the extreme moves.
However, analysts caution that the plans may not fully materialize or could be applied unevenly due to internal power dynamics and broader economic and technical pressures.
Starlink and other internet-from-space services, known as Low Earth Orbit (LEO), have also complicated control for Iran during the protests.
LEO internet services allow users to get around all censorship and shutdowns by connecting via satellites.
There are also emerging apps that use mesh networks relying on Bluetooth, which can bring connectivity where there is none.
It's almost inevitable that internet access will be truly universal eventually but it'll always be cat and mouse for repressive regimes, Woodward says.
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