In brief
The ongoing war in Iran has triggered significant shifts in the global economy, particularly in the oil market. As some countries benefit from increased oil prices, others face economic challenges arising from disruptions in supply. This article explores the contrasting impacts on different nations, highlighting both the beneficiaries and the struggling economies amidst escalating tensions in the region.
The global winners and losers of the war in Iran
From soaring heating oil bills for homes in Yorkshire to bill-saving school closures in Pakistan, the financial fallout from the war in the Middle East is already being keenly felt.
It is increasingly clear that the impact of Tehran's retaliation, designed to trigger economic disruption and damage, may not be fleeting. Moreover, it’s very uneven.
Alongside a hefty catalogue of those who risk being hard hit, there are some who are benefiting. So who are they?
Winners: Norway, Canada and Russia
For all the efforts to pursue renewable energy, we remain hugely reliant on oil and gas. Plentiful reserves tend to promise great riches, hence crude has been labelled black gold. When prices rise, producers are typically quids in, while users are out of pocket.
But this is not your usual oil price shock. The Middle East remains the heart of supply, the Strait of Hormuz its main artery. The impact of a de facto blockage and attacks on energy infrastructure in the region has hit Gulf producers like Qatar and Saudi Arabia hard, as Tehran targets America's allies.
As customers seek alternative sources, it’s the likes of Norway and Canada who may gain. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and when many countries sought to move away from relying on Russian gas, Norway was able to ramp up production and take advantage. Meanwhile, Canada’s Energy Minister Tim Hodgson has been quick to position his nation as a stable, reliable, predictable, values-based producer of energy, although concerns about production capacity remain.
Instead, it’s Russia that could be the biggest winner. As Washington relaxes the rules to ease the global supply crunch, Russia’s crude oil sales to India have jumped by 50%. Some estimates suggest that Moscow could earn up to $5bn (£3.7bn) more by the end of March, potentially achieving its biggest year of fuel-related revenues since 2022.
As some countries ramp up their use of coal, it is a tantalizing opportunity for big exporters such as Indonesia, as the price of that fuel also rises.
Losers: US, UK and Europe
What of the US itself? President Donald Trump states that when oil goes up, the US makes a lot of money. Certainly, American oil producers could be on track to make tens of billions of dollars in extra revenues this year if crude prices remain high. However, the US is not a net winner.
Firstly, many producers are heavily exposed to disruption in the Middle East. ExxonMobil’s operations at Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial hub have been impacted by Iranian missile attacks. Furthermore, after years of cutting back capacity due to shrinking wholesale prices, many shale producers cannot ramp up output quickly.
On a per person basis, Americans are the biggest users of oil and gas globally. Economists warn that a surge in oil prices could risk shrinking the economy.
Similarly, European consumers, particularly those in the UK, are significantly reliant on imported gas, making them vulnerable to price hikes. The impact could add roughly 0.5% to inflation later in the year, affecting costs across various goods and services.
Ultimately, the dynamics of the conflict are continuing to shape economic realities across the globe, presenting both opportunities for some and challenges for others. Moving forward, nations must navigate the implications of these upheavals with care, as potential long-term disruptions arise from sustained tensions in the Middle East.
