Unexpected Victory for Bhumjaithai Party in Thailand's Elections
As the dust settles from the recent elections in Thailand, many citizens are likely questioning the outcome, as it unfolded in ways polls had not predicted.
Leading up to the elections, most opinion polls suggested a clear advantage for the progressive People's Party, with projections estimating that it would secure over 200 parliamentary seats, a significant increase from their previous tally of 151. Notably, very few forecasts placed Anutin Chanrvirakul's Bhumjaithai party ahead.
However, the final vote count reflected a dramatically different reality. Anutin's party is now poised to form the next government, projected to gain over 190 seats, while the ambitious reformists from the People's Party faced a considerable setback.
Experts are examining why a technologically adept and youthful party, which had run a dynamic campaign, could not outperform a more established, traditional party without a defined ideological identity other than strong monarchist sentiments.
A Harder Race for the Reformists
The voting system played a crucial role in this election. Thailand employs a mixed voting procedure, where each voter casts two ballots: one for a constituency candidate and another for a preferred party. The People's Party garnered nearly 10 million votes, outpacing Bhumjaithai's approximate 6 million in party-list voting, yet that accounts for only 20% of parliamentary seats. The remaining 80% are allocated via constituency contests, where the People's Party appears to struggle due to its relative newness and urban-centric support base.
Bhumjaithai, benefiting from significant resources, has effectively established strong local ties through political deals, enabling them to influence voters more efficiently.
Furthermore, Anutin has strategically capitalized on a growing conservative support base, rallying voters around his party amidst various issues, including the ongoing territorial disagreements with Cambodia and staunch royal allegiance.
The elections also saw a dramatic decline for Pheu Thai, a party that once dominated Thai politics, expected to see its parliamentary seat count diminish significantly due to internal turmoil and public dissent over governance failures.
On the reformists' side, hindsight reveals that their previous alliance with Anutin may have diluted their appeal. Faced with obstacles like the dissolution of their party and ongoing political legalities, public trust proved difficult to regain, leading to weakened electoral enthusiasm reflected in a reduced voter turnout compared to the last election.
Moving forward, Anutin's prospects of navigating the political landscape hinge on successful coalition-building, with the potential for him to achieve a full term as prime minister being contingent on this strategy. His ability to adapt and play the intricate game of Thai politics will be closely monitored as the nation grapples with the implications of this election outcome.
