High Stakes Amid Low Expectations: Trilateral Talks on Ukraine

Tue Feb 03 2026 20:31:25 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

Negotiators from Russia, Ukraine, and the US meet in Abu Dhabi for their first trilateral discussion since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, but core differences remain unresolved, raising questions about the potential for peace.

In a significant yet cautious move, negotiators from Russia, Ukraine, and the US have convened in Abu Dhabi for trilateral talks, marking their first face-to-face meeting since the conflict began in 2022. Despite the high stakes, expectations are low as underlying issues, particularly regarding territorial claims in eastern Ukraine, remain contentious. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to seek peace while navigating relationships with both US officials and Russian leaders, driven by a need for continued military support amidst ongoing threats from Russia.

Negotiators from Russia, Ukraine and the US have been meeting in Abu Dhabi for their first trilateral talks since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

But whilst the talks take a new format, the core differences remain the same.

The stakes are high, but expectations are limited.

Donald Trump is pushing hard for a peace deal in Ukraine – the one he promised but hasn't yet delivered – and he said this week that the two sides would be 'stupid' if they couldn't agree.

But despite some intense shuttle diplomacy by his own envoys, they are hosting the first trilateral talks involving Ukrainian and Russian negotiators with some major issues still unresolved.

Ukraine is engaging with the process because it wants peace more than anyone, but also because it needs to keep the US onside. It learned that lesson the hard way last year, when Donald Trump briefly suspended intelligence sharing and military aid.

Now, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says his talks with Trump in Davos were 'really positive' and he hopes for more air defence support against Russia's relentless attacks as a result.

Underlining the gravity of the situation, Zelensky remains cautious about the outcomes of the talks in the UAE, describing the meetings as 'a step', but refraining from labeling it as positive.

'We have to wish it will push us a bit closer to peace,' he stated, acknowledging that the final hurdles appear to be the most challenging, particularly discussions surrounding the eastern parts of Ukraine.

Russia insists that Ukraine should cede parts of the eastern Donbas region, which it has not managed to capture militarily, but Ukraine firmly refuses.

Zelensky emphasizes the significance of the land, which has become a symbol of resistance for those who have sacrificed their lives defending it.

Moreover, discussions about US military guarantees in the event of a future Russian invasion remain ambiguous and unreliable, especially in light of Trump's unpredictable leadership style.

As winter intensifies, the threat of escalated military action and sustained civilian attacks loom large, further complicating an already fragile situation as Ukrainian cities brace for potential escalations.