Throughout US President Donald Trump's second term in office, traders have been betting millions of dollars just before he makes major announcements. The BBC has examined trade volume data on several financial markets and matched them to some of the president's most significant market-moving statements. It found a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public.
Some analysts say it bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, whereby bets are made by people based on information that is not available to the general public. Others say the picture is more complicated and that some traders have become more adept at anticipating the president's interventions. Here are five significant examples:
1. **9 March 2026:** 'The war is very complete, pretty much'
Nine days into the US-Israel war with Iran, Trump told CBS News that the conflict was very complete, pretty much. Just minutes before his interview was made public, traders were placing bets on oil falling, leading to a significant drop in prices after the announcement.
2. **23 March 2026:** 'Complete and total resolution to hostilities'
Following a surprise announcement about positive conversations with Iran, oil prices dropped suddenly as traders reacted to the news.
3. **9 April 2025:** 'Liberation Day' pause
After announcing tariffs that caused market plunges, a 90-day pause on these tariffs led to a drastic surge in the stock market, with unusual trading patterns noted prior to the announcement.
4. **3 January 2026:** Maduro seized
A user won $436,000 betting on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro being ousted just before this occurred, raising questions about the timing and transparency of such activities.
5. **28 February 2026:** Strikes on Iran
With accounts predicting US strikes on Iran, the subsequent confirmation of these strikes led to significant winnings, highlighting the predictive strategies employed.
Suspicion of insider trading has prompted calls for investigation, with financial regulators scrutinizing trading practices linked to presidential announcements. However, enforcing these regulations remains complex, and previously no prosecutions have been made under laws covering government officials. This raises serious concerns about the integrity of market practices and the implications of power and privilege in financial trading.
Some analysts say it bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, whereby bets are made by people based on information that is not available to the general public. Others say the picture is more complicated and that some traders have become more adept at anticipating the president's interventions. Here are five significant examples:
1. **9 March 2026:** 'The war is very complete, pretty much'
Nine days into the US-Israel war with Iran, Trump told CBS News that the conflict was very complete, pretty much. Just minutes before his interview was made public, traders were placing bets on oil falling, leading to a significant drop in prices after the announcement.
2. **23 March 2026:** 'Complete and total resolution to hostilities'
Following a surprise announcement about positive conversations with Iran, oil prices dropped suddenly as traders reacted to the news.
3. **9 April 2025:** 'Liberation Day' pause
After announcing tariffs that caused market plunges, a 90-day pause on these tariffs led to a drastic surge in the stock market, with unusual trading patterns noted prior to the announcement.
4. **3 January 2026:** Maduro seized
A user won $436,000 betting on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro being ousted just before this occurred, raising questions about the timing and transparency of such activities.
5. **28 February 2026:** Strikes on Iran
With accounts predicting US strikes on Iran, the subsequent confirmation of these strikes led to significant winnings, highlighting the predictive strategies employed.
Suspicion of insider trading has prompted calls for investigation, with financial regulators scrutinizing trading practices linked to presidential announcements. However, enforcing these regulations remains complex, and previously no prosecutions have been made under laws covering government officials. This raises serious concerns about the integrity of market practices and the implications of power and privilege in financial trading.
