The Israeli air strike which killed Iran's security chief, Ali Larijani, has removed one of the Islamic Republic's most experienced and influential policymakers at a critical moment.
Larijani was not a military commander, but he was a central figure in shaping Iran's strategic decisions.
As secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, he sat at the heart of decision-making on war, diplomacy, and national security.
His voice carried weight across the system, particularly in managing Iran's confrontation with the United States and Israel.
After the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February, Larijani struck a defiant tone, signalling that Iran was prepared for a long conflict.
His death, now confirmed by state media, comes amid a broader campaign in which several senior Iranian officials and commanders have been killed within a matter of weeks. This suggests a sustained effort to weaken Iran's leadership structure during wartime.
Despite his hardline stance against the West, Larijani was often described inside Iran as a pragmatist. He combined ideological loyalty with a technocratic approach, favouring calculated strategy over rhetoric.
He remained deeply sceptical of engagement with Western powers, but he was involved in key diplomatic efforts, including acting as an envoy in Iran's long-term co-operation agreement with China.
At the time of his death, Larijani was managing three crises: the ongoing war, domestic unrest rooted in economic grievances, and stalled negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program.
His removal leaves these issues unresolved and transfers them to an as-yet-unknown successor. While Iran has shown resilience, partly by disrupting global energy markets, its airspace remains open to continued strikes. Any new senior figure will face immediate risk of being targeted.
This situation may shift power further towards the military, with indications that armed forces units have been granted broad authority to act if senior leadership is incapacitated. This could mean decisions are made more quickly but with less central coordination.
The likely outcome is a more volatile situation: a harder military posture in the war and harsher repression at home.
Iranian army chief Amir Hatami has threatened to launch a decisive retaliation for Larijani's death. Over the long term, a system that continues to lose senior figures may find it increasingly difficult to function effectively, particularly in a populous country like Iran.
The impact of Larijani's death, therefore, is indicative of a broader leadership crisis that could affect both the trajectory of the ongoing war and the overall stability of the Iranian state itself.
