In brief
In the municipal elections held on Wednesday, the African National Congress (ANC) could receive less than 40% of the vote for the first time, leaving many metros without a clear majority and paving the way for coalition governments. The Democratic Alliance (DA) was projected to win Johannesburg and retain Cape Town, while national implications for the ANC’s leadership and the 2029 election have emerged. Analysts note that long‑standing service failures and corruption concerns are driving voters toward alternatives.
On Wednesday, South Africans turned out at polling stations across the country to elect local councillors, in a vote that could see the African National Congress (ANC) dip below 40% of the vote for the first time. The shift is a continuation of the party’s decline since the 2021 municipal elections, when it fell below 50% for the first time, and according to polls, could leave the ANC as the largest party but without a clear majority in any major metropolitan area. The result will likely create a patchwork of coalition governments and set the stage for the ANC’s leadership contest, as President Cyril Ramaphosa approaches the end of his term as party chair in 2027.
National polls released by Ipsos and Ipsos‑Reuters found that the ANC might secure just under 40% of the vote nationwide, a steep decline from the 45.59% it captured in 2021 and the 53.91% it dominated in 2016. The DA is tipped to make gains in Johannesburg, the country’s largest city, and is heavily favoured to hold onto Cape Town. In the southern province of KwaZulu‑Natal, the African National Congress’ once‑dominant Umtshato wing of the ANC—associated with ex‑President Jacob Zuma—faces growing opposition from the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, further eroding parliamentary strength in the region.
“Municipal failures have contributed to declining public trust and confidence in democratic governance,” said President Ramaphosa, who acknowledged failures within his party but expressed optimism that it will regain support. He added that the election was “an opportunity to turn this around.”
Background: ANC’s Decline and Service Failures
The ANC first lost its outright majority in municipal councils in 2021, when it fell below 50% support. Its loss of control forced the party into coalitions with the DA and smaller parties after the 2024 national election, when it lost its majority in parliament for the first time. Analysts point to persistent service failures—frequent power cuts, water shortages, and rising crime—as the main drivers of voter discontent. “The crisis in service delivery, especially in large metros like Johannesburg where the ANC’s networks still have an influence but cannot control supply, has dampened confidence,” a researcher at the University of Pretoria said.
South Africa’s new municipal code, which took effect in 2023 and grants greater responsibility to local governments, has yet to deliver on its promises. In many areas, councils remain functionally dependent on national resources, limiting their ability to resolve local challenges. As a result, the opposition parties have positioned themselves as more accountable, particularly the DA, which ran an energetic campaign for the mayoralty of Johannesburg, led by former cabinet minister Helen Zille.
In the provincial context, Tshwane—home to Pretoria, the administrative capital—has been a battleground between the ANC and the DA. Meanwhile, eThekwini, which houses Durban and has a high concentration of MK supporters, could see a strengthening of the MK party as voters realign against the ANC’s fragmented local structures.
Polls opened at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) and closed at 9 p.m. (1900 GMT). Results are expected to be announced on Sunday, at which point a clearer picture of the new municipal landscapes will emerge. Analysts note that a lack of a single party securing a majority in any metro means that all metropolitan municipalities will likely be governed by coalitions, a scenario that has been blamed for fragmented service delivery in the past.
Implications for the ANC’s Leadership and the 2029 National Election
The 2026 municipal elections are being watched closely by the ANC’s senior leadership as a barometer for internal support. A badly weakened local vote share could signal pressure on President Ramaphosa’s leadership, as the party’s internal constitution requires a leadership election every 12 years and the next scheduled for 2027. “A poor result would give us ammunition to push for change and new leadership that might do better,” an ANC official told Reuters.
In the broader electoral context, the municipal outcomes will feed into forecasts for the 2029 national election. If the ANC’s decline continues, it could face a significant electoral shock on the national stage. Conversely, if coalition partners manage to deliver tangible improvements in service delivery, the ANC might regain some lost ground.
In the last two municipal elections, the ANC’s decline was clear. In 2016, the party secured 53.91% of the overall vote and held an outright majority in 161 of 213 councils. By 2021, that figure had fallen to 45.59% of the overall vote, and in 2026, it is projected to fall below 40%.
Observers have noted that the DCDA's projected gains in Johannesburg and Cape Town could signal a shift in voter dynamics across the country. The DA’s stronghold in Cape Town remains intact, but the DA’s performance in Johannesburg suggests that the ANC’s incumbency advantage is being challenged. “If the DA retains Johannesburg, we will have an edge that could cross into the national elections as well,” said a DC expert. However, critics warn that coalition politics could still lead to policy gridlock and could distract from addressing the service delivery crisis.
Ultimately, the municipal vote underscores the growing frustration of South Africans with the ANC’s performance, particularly in terms of corruption, crime, and service failures. The impending announcement of the election results on Sunday will reveal whether the ANC’s trajectory is linear decline, a stalemate, or a potential rebound if coalition partners succeed in service delivery. The outcome will also shape the political narrative leading up to the 2029 national election and determine the legal and democratic context for the ANC’s leadership competition.
