In brief
Elon Musk announced that reusability will cut orbital launch costs to less than $100 per kilogram. He cites Falcon 9’s half‑reuse and the all‑reusable Starship, proposing hourly Super‑Heavy launches and a future cargo throughput of 10 million tonnes per year. Analyses from other sources show current prices of $18,400 per kilogram, highlighting the scale of Musk’s projected reduction and raising questions about its feasibility.
Elon Musk announced that the future cost of delivering one kilogram of cargo to orbit could fall below $100, thanks to the full reusability of SpaceX’s Starship system. In an interview with entrepreneur Ron Baron, the SpaceX CEO noted that while the 2010 NASA figure for orbital launch was $18,500 per kilogram, the launch of Falcon 9 already reduced the cost, and the next step would be a further drop under $100.
Current Cost Benchmarks
According to a recent analysis by Max Polyakov, a space‑economy researcher, the current maximum payload cost for first‑orbit launch is roughly $18,400 per kilogram. This figure is based on the price of a single Falcon 9 flight at full payload capacity and represents the high end of what many customers pay today. The 2010 NASA estimate of $18,500 per kilogram was the prevailing cost standard before the advent of reusable launch vehicles.
Falcon 9 Reusability
In the interview, Musk explained that Falcon 9’s booster can launch, return, and land repeatedly. He said:
"I think we get to under $100 a kilogram to orbit," he said.
In a follow‑up remark, Musk added that the Falcon 9 launch vehicle has "around 80% usability. The booster comes back and lands. We do not refly the upper stage and the cost of the upper stage is roughly the cost of a medium‑sized jet. So that means the minimum cost per flight for Falcon 9 is a medium‑sized jet." This emphasis of partial reuse has already reduced today’s launch costs, but Musk argues the current figure still leaves a sizeable gap to reach the sub‑$100 goal.
The Starship Advantage
Musk highlighted that Starship is "the entire system is designed for reusability," meaning that the top stage, the orbital‑delivery payload vehicle, also returns and is refurbished for repeated use. He anticipated that once operational, the Super‑Heavy booster could fly every hour, creating a continuous stream of launch opportunities. In August of the same year, Musk said SpaceX hopes to transport up to 10 million tonnes of cargo per year using the Starship system.
Open Questions
While the vision of hourly Super‑Heavy launches promises dramatic cost cuts, experts and analysts remain circumspect about the feasibility of such a launch cadence and the associated infrastructure changes. Although Falcon 9 has demonstrated a repeatable landing process, the engineering, logistical, and regulatory challenges of scaling up to an hourly cadence remain untested. Additionally, the transition from Falcon 9’s partial reusability to Starship’s fully reusable architecture will involve significant capital investment and developmental risk before the projected sub‑$100 per kilogram target can be realized.
Given the current launch price of roughly $18,400 per kilogram reported by Max Polyakov, Musk’s projection implies a cost reduction of almost a factor of 180. Whether this reduction can be achieved in the short term, or if it will manifest only after the Starship fleet is fully mature, remains a key question for the industry. Musk’s statement also underlines a broader ambition: delivering
