Negotiators from Israel and Hamas are heading to Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, to start indirect talks over an end to the Israel-Gaza war.
It represents the closest both sides have come to a deal since the conflict began two years ago. However, Donald Trump's 20-point peace plan - which Israel has agreed to, and Hamas has partly agreed to - remains largely a framework that lacks detailed substance.
As discussions unfold, several critical sticking points have emerged:
Hostage Release Structure
Trump's plan stipulates that all remaining hostages should be released within 72 hours of an agreement. Reports indicate that 48 Israeli hostages are still believed to be in Gaza, with 20 thought to be alive.
While Trump suggested that a hostage release could occur soon, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu indicated it might happen before the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, around October 13th. Although Hamas has acknowledged the hostage exchange framework under Trump's plan, its willingness to release hostages without more comprehensive agreements remains uncertain.
Relationship dynamics are fraught, with Israel previously attempting to assassinate a member of Hamas's negotiating team, a maneuver that drew condemnation from both Hamas and key mediators like Qatar.
Hamas Disarmament
Israel has made it clear that the goal of the conflict is to dismantle Hamas, emphasizing that hostilities won't cease until the group is eradicated. A significant element of Trump's plan requires Hamas to disarm, a condition the group has historically rejected, contingent upon establishing a Palestinian state. The absence of mentions of disarmament in Hamas’s responses suggests they remain entrenched in their stance.
Netanyahu reiterated that disarming Hamas is non-negotiable, insisting that Gaza's demilitarization will occur 'the easy way or the hard way.'
Future Governance of Gaza
Trump’s framework proposes that Hamas will no longer have a role in Gaza governance, which is to be managed by a temporary transitional body of Palestinian technocrats overseen by a 'Board of Peace' led by Trump and Tony Blair. Ultimately, control is intended to shift to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
However, Netanyahu's agreement to Trump's plan is complicated by his opposition to PA involvement in governance, reflecting tensions within his government about control of Gaza and the reconstruction of Jewish settlements.
In a contradictory stance, Hamas expressed its intent to hold a role in a unified Palestinian movement going forward, a notion likely to be vexing to the US and Israeli officials.
Israeli Withdrawal
A further point of contention is the conditions under which Israeli troops would withdraw from Gaza. Trump's plan envisions that military pullbacks will occur according to standards and timelines yet to be defined and agreed upon by all involved.
A suggested map from the White House outlines a phased withdrawal of Israeli troops but lacks clarity and specificity, which raises concerns for Hamas regarding potential timelines for total withdrawal and territorial integrity amidst ongoing security issues.
As the negotiations initially commence, the myriad sticking points pose considerable challenges to achieving a sustainable resolution in the long-standing conflict between Israel and Hamas.
