For weeks, Israel has been engaging in covert communication with the Syrian government, discussing ways to ease decades of conflict rooted primarily in territorial disputes stemming from the Arab-Israeli war of 1967. Amidst this diplomatic backdrop, Israeli media has been buzzing with speculation about the likelihood of a non-aggression pact or even a breakthrough peace agreement with the Syrian regime, which has seen a power shift with former jihadist factions now wielding control in Damascus after a tumultuous December 2024.
However, Israeli airstrikes that targeted Syrian military installations, including a significant operation in the capital, have raised doubts about the feasibility of such pacific aspirations. Experts suggest that these military interventions may cause a rift in the ongoing diplomatic engagement. Itamar Rabinovich, an Israeli historian who oversaw peace negotiations with Syria during the 1990s, expressed concerns, stating that the current military actions appear to contradict the intent of negotiation.
Rabinovich points out that a post-2023 security mindset in Israel has emerged, characterized by a blend of fears stemming from the unexpected Hamas attack in October 2023, coupled with newfound confidence following military successes against both Hezbollah and Iranian positions. This precarious balance results in a preference for preemptive military action rather than diplomatic resolution.
The catalyst for Israel's recent military activity was Syria’s decision to send troops into southwest regions to quell unrest between local Bedouin tribes and the Druse community. Despite suffering considerable losses to its military capabilities in past conflicts, Syria managed to deploy older tanks and personnel, a move that Israel responded to with decisive air operations. The ongoing alterations in regional dynamics stress the importance of context in evaluating Israel's current military and diplomatic strategies, potentially altering the path towards a peaceful settlement in years to come.
However, Israeli airstrikes that targeted Syrian military installations, including a significant operation in the capital, have raised doubts about the feasibility of such pacific aspirations. Experts suggest that these military interventions may cause a rift in the ongoing diplomatic engagement. Itamar Rabinovich, an Israeli historian who oversaw peace negotiations with Syria during the 1990s, expressed concerns, stating that the current military actions appear to contradict the intent of negotiation.
Rabinovich points out that a post-2023 security mindset in Israel has emerged, characterized by a blend of fears stemming from the unexpected Hamas attack in October 2023, coupled with newfound confidence following military successes against both Hezbollah and Iranian positions. This precarious balance results in a preference for preemptive military action rather than diplomatic resolution.
The catalyst for Israel's recent military activity was Syria’s decision to send troops into southwest regions to quell unrest between local Bedouin tribes and the Druse community. Despite suffering considerable losses to its military capabilities in past conflicts, Syria managed to deploy older tanks and personnel, a move that Israel responded to with decisive air operations. The ongoing alterations in regional dynamics stress the importance of context in evaluating Israel's current military and diplomatic strategies, potentially altering the path towards a peaceful settlement in years to come.
