In brief
Vietnam’s trade turnover topped $1 trillion in the first ten months of 2026, up 32.3% from 2025. Exports hit $499 billion, with processed industrial goods forming 87.4% of the value. The Ministry of Industry and Trade is drafting a new strategy to 2030 and a vision to 2045, aiming to lift domestic enterprises’ export share to 40%.
On November 1, 2026, Vietnamese authorities announced that the country’s total import‑export turnover for the first ten months of the year had surpassed $1 trillion. The figure, reported by Xinhua and echoed by the Voice of Vietnam and VOV, reached an estimated $1.01 trillion, a 32.3 percent year‑on‑year increase.
Trade figures and implications
Exports climbed 27.4 percent from the same period in 2025, totaling around $499 billion. These exports were dominated by processed and manufactured industrial products, which accounted for 87.4 percent of the total export value, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade. In October alone, Vietnam’s trade turnover hit $122.2 billion, rising 47.6 percent year‑on‑year. That month also saw a trade surplus of $6.8 billion, narrowing the cumulative trade deficit for the ten‑month span to roughly $12.7 billion.
The rapid rise in trade turnover aligns with a broader trend of accelerated economic integration and expansion of Vietnam’s manufacturing base. The prevalence of processed industrial products in exports reflects the country’s continued shift towards higher‑value manufacturing and its role as a hub for regional supply chains.
Analysts suggest that the surge may also be tied to sustained demand for Vietnamese commodities in neighboring markets, especially China and ASEAN members. They point to government incentives for export‑oriented enterprises and the smooth operation of ports and logistics as key enablers. However, the precise drivers of the growth remain under examination, with experts questioning how much of the increase is due to higher output versus improved trade terms.
Future strategy and questions
In response to the impressive performance, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is drafting a new import‑export strategy covering the period up to 2030 and a long‑term vision that extends to 2045. The strategy aims to raise the share of domestic enterprises in national exports to 30 percent by 2030 and to 40 percent by 2045.
The Ministry’s plans represent a shift toward more inclusive growth, focusing on encouraging smaller domestic firms to enter export markets. While the targets are ambitious, business groups have raised concerns about the availability of capital, technology access, and market knowledge required for domestic companies to compete internationally.
Another open question involves the sustainability of the trade surplus trend. Although the October surplus narrowed the cumulative deficit, economists note that recent global supply‑chain disruptions could impact Vietnam’s export volumes. They also caution that an overreliance on processed industrial goods may expose the economy to commodity price swings and demand volatility from key partners.
Stakeholders are also monitoring how Vietnam will balance its trade expansion with environmental and social responsibilities. The new strategy is expected to incorporate measures to reduce the environmental footprint of manufacturing and to ensure fair labor practices in export production. Yet, the specific mechanisms and enforcement frameworks for these objectives have yet to be finalized.
In summary, Vietnam’s achievement of a $1 trillion trade turnover in the first ten months of 2026 marks a significant milestone, reflecting robust growth in exports and a strengthening position in global supply chains. The forthcoming strategy and vision by the Ministry of Industry and Trade will shape how the country consolidates this momentum, confronts emerging challenges, and pursues deeper integration into the international economy.
