On Friday the Copernicus Climate Change Service, part of the EU Climate Service, released a statement saying that global average temperatures in 2026 are virtually certain to exceed the 1.5 °C warming threshold above pre‑industrial levels, making 2026 the second calendar year to do so, after 2024.
The Service first identified 2024 as the earliest calendar year in which temperatures would surpass the limit, and the new assessment confirms that this trajectory will continue into 2026. The report has been labeled a Flash report by the EU climate monitor, underscoring the immediacy of the findings.
According to the report, the certainty of exceeding the 1.5 °C threshold is high enough to be considered virtually guaranteed, though the specific temperature projection is not detailed, in line with the Service’s usual practice of relaying probabilistic outcomes rather than precise figures.
The flash release also stresses that the situation underscores a need for urgent climate action to keep temperatures below the target. The Service’s pronouncement does not include actions or policy options but signals a growing consensus that the EU’s climate trajectory is already beyond the 1.5 °C boundary.
Questions remain regarding how this increased certainty will shape policy decisions, whether adaptive measures will shift in scope, and what scientific expectations will alter in imminent climate planning cycles. The Service’s assessment provides an important warning signal, but further details are needed to understand the precise consequences for national and international climate commitments.
