A computer‑assisted telephone interview (CATI) poll carried out by domestic research firm Flower Research revealed that disapproval of President Lee Jae Myung’s state administration outpaced approval, with 53.8% of respondents judging his performance negatively while 45.6% expressed approval, according to Xinhua on November 2, 2026.
The CATI method also reported that support for South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party fell 0.7 percentage points from the prior week to 41.2%, whereas the conservative opposition People Power Party’s approval score slipped 0.9 points to 35.8%. Both parties therefore show a narrowing margin, tightening the race for public backing.
In an automated response system (ARS) survey of the same week, the gap widened further: the Democratic Party’s approval dropped 1.6 points to 38.1%, while the People Power Party remained unchanged at 41.9%. Xinhua explains that the ARS poll found the president’s approval at 39.4% and disapproval at 59.7%, a 20.3‑point difference that deepened the negative perception.
For the first time since the 2022 presidential election, disapproval exceeds approval for the head of state. In 2022, Lee entered office with a 46% approval rating and a 44% disapproval rate, according to archived NationWatch data. The new poll indicates a discernible shift against his record, especially over his handling of domestic labor reforms and cross‑border tensions.
Observers point to a number of policy arenas that have strained voter sentiment. Lee’s administration has pursued a progressive agenda that includes expanding public health coverage, reshaping the pension system, and pushing for stricter environmental regulations. Critics argue that the reforms have slowed economic growth, creating job losses in export‑dependent sectors and raising the cost of living.
Foreign policy has also been a lightning rod for criticism. Lee’s increased engagement with North Korea, seen as a conciliatory move, was met with impatience by some voters who favor a tougher stance for national security. The recent rapid development of a no‑fence policy toward the peninsula was cited in disapproval statements from the poll, indicating that a segment of the electorate remains uneasy about bilateral negotiations.
Support for the Democratic Party’s policy initiatives has therefore weakened, but the party’s leadership still retains a larger base than the People Power Party. Analysts note that while the opposition’s numbers have remained steady in the ARS poll, the Democratic Party’s dip in the CATI survey reflects growing fatigue among its traditional supporters.
Background of the Party Race
The Democratic Party and People Power Party have been locked in a close electoral contest for the past three years. In the June 2024 parliamentary elections, the Democrats secured 161 seats out of 300, the People Power Party held 130, leaving a narrow opportunity for coalition shifts.
Since taking office, President Lee has been working with a slim majority to pass the 2025 budget, but the budget’s focus on large infrastructure projects has been contested by smaller parties. The party debate over the “Smart Nation” initiative, which aims to fund artificial‑intelligence development, has also highlighted divergent visions for the country’s future.
Implications and Open Questions
With disapproval now higher than approval, President Lee faces an uphill battle in maintaining a governing majority. The impending general elections in March 2027 could hinge on whether the administration can regain public trust. Analysts, including scholars at Seoul National University, argue that the current trend may trigger policy recalibration, especially in economic areas where public dissatisfaction is heaviest.
Another open question is whether the green‑field nature of the new poll’s sampling methodology will alter the perception of public opinion. The ARS and CATI findings diverge enough that future polls may have to clarify whether respondents meaningfully represent a broad demographic spectrum, including rural voters who traditionally lean conservative.
From a governance perspective, the confidence of both parties in a legislature that now demands coalition support in several key votes is uncertain. If the party race tightens further, legislative gridlock could stymie major reforms—especially those involving business regulation and environmental policy that Lee has championed.
While the data confirmed a rise in disapproval, the context of the poll’s release is also significant. Xinhua reported the numbers in an article streamed in real time, and the Big News Network echoed the findings within minutes, underscoring how quickly such shifts capture public attention and are amplified by media outlets.
In sum, the poll signals a growing disconnect between President Lee’s administration and the electorate, an issue that will likely dominate political narratives throughout the rest of his term and shape the strategies of both the Democratic and People Power parties. Only time will tell whether the administration can reverse its downward trend or whether it will burn its political capital before the next election cycle.
