In brief
In Sofia on 12 November 2027, Finance Minister Galab Donev revealed a 2027 draft budget that projects a 3.5 % of GDP deficit and a debt of 31.4 % of GDP, while pledging income support and investment. The plan relies on improved revenue collection, anti‑tax evasion measures, and reduced administrative costs. Experts note a tight fiscal path, with the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure in play and calls for structural reforms underscoring the challenge of balancing consolidation with growth.
Finance Minister Galab Donev addressed employers and unions in Sofia on 12 November 2027, announcing a new draft budget that seeks to restore Bulgaria’s fiscal sustainability while maintaining income support and investment levels. The meeting, held in an emergency session, was attended by key social partners who voiced their positions on the 2027 state budget as well as the budgets of the National Health Insurance Fund and the Public Social Security Fund.
The 2027 budget forecast a cash‑basis deficit of 3.5 % of GDP, narrowing to 3.1 % in 2028 and 2.4 % in 2029, according to the medium‑term fiscal plan. Total revenue, grants and donations under the Consolidated Fiscal Programme are expected to range between 35.6 % and 36.1 % of GDP over the 2027‑2029 period, while consolidated fiscal‑programme expenditure is projected to fall from 43.5 % of GDP in 2026 to 39.6 % in 2027, further reducing to 38.9 % in 2028 and 38 % in 2029.
Finance Minister Galab Donev said,
"To achieve this, the budget provides for measures to improve revenue collection, prevent tax and social security contribution evasion and non‑payment, and reduce the administrative burden and costs for businesses and citizens. Fiscal consolidation requires efforts from all of us, which is why dialogue with you is of key importance."
He added that the draft budget is a “budget of responsibility” that addresses the inherited state of public finances and the accumulated imbalances, while also taking into account realistic consolidation limits for 2027 and the following years.
Finance Minister Galab Donev also noted the EU Council’s intensified Excessive Deficit Procedure against Bulgaria and explained that the 2027‑2029 budget framework incorporates its recommendations to stabilize public finances in the medium and long term, and that corrective measures can still be implemented in 2027.
Budget Parameters and Debt Outlook
Government debt is projected to reach EUR 44.3 billion, or 31.4 % of GDP, in 2027, with provisions for new borrowing of up to EUR 8.6 billion. The minimum fiscal reserve at the end of the year is set at EUR 2.6 billion. The minimum monthly wage is projected to stand at EUR 660 in 2027.
Earlier, the European Central Bank’s July 2026 bulletin highlighted the need for structural reforms and sound public finances to strengthen potential growth. The bulletin noted, “Des réformes structurelles et des finances publiques saines seront nécessaires pour renforcer la croissance potentielle.”1 This commentary dovetails with Donev’s focus on consolidating fiscal balances while sustaining social support.
Other analysts have pointed to a separate budget law that, according to a recent article, shows a deficit increase from 2.9 % of GDP in 2026 to 3.4 % in 2027 – the first rise of the legislature after four consecutive reductions. The figure reinforces the tight fiscal corridor Bulgaria operates within.2
Despite the outlined measures, lingering questions persist about the feasibility of the targeted deficit reductions amid political pressures, entrenched tax evasion networks, and the economy’s current low growth trajectory. The success of the 2027 budget will hinge on the effectiveness of revenue‑enhancement strategies, the speed of administrative reforms, and the ability of the government to engage employers and unions in a sustained partnership.
The meeting’s outcome will shape Bulgaria’s trajectory in the coming years, as the country negotiates its compliance with EU fiscal rules while striving to protect income levels for its citizens. Analysts will watch closely whether the planned measures meet the Required Fiscal Elasticity and whether the budget can be implemented without triggering adverse impacts on public services or employment.
