Marine Le Pen’s fate will be decided tonight at 13:30 (11:30 GMT) in Paris when the appeal court reviews the embezzlement conviction that bars her from public office for five years.
The National Rally leader, who has twice stood second to Emmanuel Macron, is currently ahead in pre‑election polls. A guilty verdict would leave deputy Jordan Bardella – who has been appointed as her Plan B – as the party’s likely presidential candidate.
Le Pen’s conviction stemmed from the 2004‑2016 “fake jobs” scheme that used European Parliament funds to pay her own party staff. The original verdict also imposed a four‑year jail term, two suspended, and a year with an electronic tag.
Three possible outcomes loom:
- Acquittal – unlikely, but would clear her to run.
- Guilty with a full five‑year ban** – Le Pen would be barred from the 2027 election.
- Guilty with a reduced ban** – a two‑year or less restriction would allow her to campaign.
Le Pen has publicly accepted the possibility that if she can no longer stand she will remain an activist, not a candidate. She confirmed this on an evening programme, emphasising her commitment to the party’s ideas regardless of the verdict.
Jordan Bardella, who led the National Rally since 2022 and joined Le Pen’s team in his early twenties, said on Friday that he would support Le Pen’s continued leadership and would be ready to act as prime minister if she were elected. He also pledged that if justice barred Le Pen, Bardella would step into the presidential role.
Polls now show Bardella slightly ahead of Le Pen, yet the two head the party’s front‑line offer. Critics have questioned whether the younger Bardella can handle the pressures of a run‑off, who is only 31.
The appeal court’s decision, therefore, will not only affect the presence of Le Pen on the ballot but also reshape the National Rally’s strategic narrative ahead of the April 2027 election and the subsequent run‑off in May.
