Background and Context
French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu narrowly survived a crucial test on Tuesday as the country's divided parliament voted in favour of a 2026 budget bill.
If Lecornu had failed to win a majority in the National Assembly for his social security budget, it would have gravely weakened his hand ahead of the main budget vote, scheduled by the end of the year.
However, the bill ultimately passed with a narrow margin of 247 votes to 234. It will head to the upper house or Senate next before returning for a final reading in the Assembly.
Political Landscape
It's a good sign that a majority has been found. The immense likelihood now is that the (social security budget) will be adopted definitively, stated Assembly speaker Yael Braun-Pivet.
Lecornu, who was appointed in September by President Emmanuel Macron, is focused entirely on securing passage of the 2026 budget legislation through the parliament's two chambers.
Since the snap elections called by Macron in June 2024, the National Assembly has been divided into three roughly equal blocs: centre, left, and far-right, none possessing a strong majority.
Remarkably, Lecornu is the fourth prime minister appointed by Macron since then. His predecessors, Michel Barnier and François Bayrou, were both ousted after their attempts to manage France's increasing debt were unsuccessful.
Budget Analysis
In France's political system, two budgetary laws exist: one pertaining to social security, which includes funding for hospitals and pensions, and the principal one that encompasses all other government spending. Historically, both laws have been plagued by substantial deficits.
To secure the necessary support, Lecornu negotiated with deputies from 11 parliamentary groups, urging that a no-vote could exacerbate the country’s financial troubles.
His principal allies include members from the Socialist Party (PS), which holds around 70 seats. Many within the PS have expressed discomfort with their electoral alliance with the far-left France Unbowed party (LFI).
As part of the negotiation, Lecornu agreed to suspend a key reform that would have raised the retirement age to 64 and committed to not using a governmental power (known as 49-3) to pass the budget without a vote.
This approach drew praise from Socialist leaders Olivier Faure and Boris Vallaud, who successfully led their MPs in favor of the budget.
Reactions and Future Implications
While enhancing ties with the left, Lecornu's compromises alienated segments of the centre-right, with former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe and other conservative figures criticizing the bill as inadequate to address France's fiscal crisis.
Bruno Retailleau, leading the conservative Republican party, condemned the measures, dubbing the agreement a fiscal hold-up that merely allows Macron to maintain power temporarily.
Mathilde Panot from the far-left LFI criticized the Socialists for abandoning their foundational principles, asserting, We know now that they're no longer in opposition. Marine Le Pen and her right-wing National Rally party also opposed the bill.
Looking forward, attention now shifts to the main budget vote, which must occur by year-end. Analysts speculate Lecornu's chances for success are slim, particularly following the recent vote.
In the event of failure, Lecornu will be compelled to introduce a special law enabling government functions to remain operational using 2025 allocations, similar to actions taken this year.
Despite the challenges, Tuesday's vote represents a notable victory for Lecornu, bolstered by thorough behind-the-scenes collaboration across the political spectrum.
