Assessing India's Fight Against Maoism: A Turning Point or Temporary Pause?

As India marks a potential turning point in its struggle against Maoist insurgents with decreasing violence and significant leadership losses, experts debate the movement's sustainability and the socio-political dynamics at play.

In a striking development that may signal a shift in India’s decades-long struggle against Maoist insurgency, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government appears to be on the brink of a significant victory. In Chhattisgarh, central to the Maoist movement, the death of the group's most-wanted leader, Nambala Keshava Rao, known as Basavaraju, along with 26 others during a security operation, has raised hopes that the tide may be turning. Home Minister Amit Shah hailed this operation as "the most decisive strike" in three decades, emphasizing its potential to mark the end of the armed struggle that has claimed thousands of lives since the turn of the millennium.

Often referred to as "Naxalites," this insurgency traces its roots to a peasant uprising in Naxalbari in 1967 and has evolved into a formidable force that controls vast areas across central and eastern India—what is termed the "red corridor." Notably, the conflict has resulted in nearly 12,000 deaths since 2000, with a particular focus on advocating for the rights of marginalized communities. As of 2023, Chhattisgarh stands as the epicenter of Maoist-related violence, accounting for a staggering 63% of incidents and 66% of deaths attributed to Left-Wing Extremism (LWE).

With the government's ambitious goal of eliminating Maoism by March 2026, the insurgents now find themselves at a critical juncture. Analysts present diverging views on the movement's resilience. While MA Ganapathy, a senior home ministry official with experience in anti-Maoist operations, asserts a decline in the movement's ideological appeal, others like journalist N Venugopal warn against complacency, noting that Marxist-Leninist movements have historically survived tougher setbacks.

Recent reports highlight a 48% reduction in violent incidents linked to Maoist activity, reflecting a significant success for Indian security forces. Yet, even amidst this apparent decline, Chhattisgarh continues to bear the brunt of Maoist violence. Strategic state-led interventions, aided by central forces, have played a crucial role in diminishing the insurgents' power. Intelligence-led operations and heightened connectivity among local populations have curtailed the Maoists' support base, signaling a shift in societal attitudes.

A common sentiment among critics of the movement suggests that the Maoist leadership has failed to adapt their strategy to contemporary political realities, hampering broad support and cohesive political representation. Observers point to a longstanding disconnect with the urban populace and the need for the movement to evolve in alignment with new social conditions. Potential for a new approach involving dialogue has emerged as a topic of consideration among both former sympathizers and critics, with calls for ceasefires gaining traction among political factions in states like Telangana.

Despite ongoing struggles, the Maoist movement continues to hold sway in select isolated regions, particularly in tribal areas rich in natural resources coveted for their economic potential. With the central government actively pursuing mining interests in Chhattisgarh, a landscape shift beckons that may further diminish Maoist influence in the future.

While the loss of leadership such as Basavaraju may destabilize the Maoist apparatus temporarily, the underlying grievances of marginalized communities persist. Observers note that movements often emerge from socio-economic injustice, suggesting that as long as these conditions exist, the spirit of resistance could permeate under a different guise, irrespective of the historic Maoist label.