Winners and Losers of the New UK-EU Agreement Post-Brexit

The newly established agreement between the UK and EU post-Brexit seeks to improve relations across various sectors. As benefits and drawbacks emerge, key players such as UK food exporters, young mobility initiatives, and defense contractors find themselves in contrasting positions amid changing regulations.

A deal to "reset" relations between the UK and the EU following Brexit has been established at a summit in London. This agreement addresses several important domains, including defense, fishing, food trade, and the movement of young people between the UK and the EU. Analyzing the agreement reveals a clear set of winners and losers.

**Food Sector**

*Winner*: UK food exporters to the EU stand to benefit from fewer checks under the new agreement.
*Loser*: Those opposed to the UK aligning itself with EU standards will face unwanted conditions.

Since Brexit, UK products—including food—have encountered new inspections and additional paperwork when shipping to the EU. Certain items, such as raw burgers and sausages, have been banned due to stringent EU regulations. Consequently, UK food exports to the EU have plummeted, with a 34% decrease projected for 2024 in comparison to 2019 levels. The industry attributes this decline largely to the cumbersome bureaucracy. A proposed joint food safety agreement is expected to alleviate many of these hurdles if finalized, reducing paperwork and possibly lifting bans on certain items. However, this agreement necessitates the UK to adhere to future EU food standards—a stipulation criticized by some.

**Fishing Industry**

*Winner*: The EU gains extended access, with fishing vessels allowed 12 more years of access to UK waters.
*Loser*: UK fishermen hoping for annual negotiations find their bargaining power diminished.

While fishing contributes a mere 0.04% to the UK economy, it remains politically sensitive. A note within the agreement extends mutual access to fishing waters until 2038. Critics, such as Elspeth Macdonald, argue this is detrimental to UK fishermen, as they prefer annual negotiations instead of long-term arrangements which strip their negotiating leverage. Despite assurances from Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer that the EU vessels' catch limits won't increase, the long-term consequences for UK fishermen are concerning.

**Youth Mobility Initiatives**

*Winner*: Young individuals in both the UK and EU could benefit from increased freedom to work and study.
*Loser*: Critics fear youth mobility schemes might elevate immigration figures.

The details are still under review, but prospective benefits aim to facilitate youth exchanges between the UK and the EU. The "youth experience scheme" has the potential to bolster net migration temporarily, raising questions about its long-term immigration effects. Experts suggest implementing a phased approach to manage migration in response to participation rates.

**Travel and Tourism**

*Winner*: Potential for British tourists to utilize eGates at EU airports.
*Loser*: Visitors anticipating reduced wait times may be disappointed by the uncertainty surrounding implementation.

UK nationals may gain the ability to use eGates rather than facing manual passport checks at EU borders, promising a more streamlined travel experience. However, the vagueness of this part of the agreement raises concerns about effective implementation during busy travel seasons.

**Defense Sector**

*Winner*: UK defense firms could secure contracts from the EU's new rearmament fund.
*Loser*: EU defense companies potentially losing revenue opportunities.

The EU’s new Security Action for Europe fund, aimed at increasing defense spending, might open avenues for UK defense industry participation, increasing competition for contracts previously reserved for EU firms. This could be significant given the UK's existing strong defense manufacturing sector.

As the agreement unfolds, the consequences of the new UK-EU framework will significantly shape each sector's future in the context of Brexit. The divergent impacts highlight an evolving relationship marked by both challenges and opportunities.