Uncertainty Clouds Australia’s Submarine Plans Amid Trump’s Re-election

With Donald Trump back in power, Australia's defense strategy hinges on the Aukus submarine deal, raising fears of decreased U.S. support and potential changes to the agreement.

Australia’s defense minister is grappling with a growing crisis following the U.S. re-election of Donald Trump. The Aukus agreement—an ambitious trilateral pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States aimed at fortifying defense through advanced nuclear submarine technology—is now in jeopardy. The Biden administration expressed intentions to reassess the pact to align with Trump's "America First" strategy, leaving Australia anxious about its future defense assurances.

Initially, the Aukus deal, valued at approximately £176 billion ($239 billion), was seen as a major leap forward for Australia, upgrading its naval capabilities significantly. However, as scrutiny mounts, experts in Australia share concerns regarding the reliability of their long-term ally. Sam Roggeveen from the Lowy Institute stated, “I don't think any Australian should feel that our ally is fully committed to our security at this moment.”

The agreement's realization hinges heavily on the U.S., as the advanced technologies and submarine designs are primarily American. Under Secretary of Defense Policy Elbridge Colby, previously skeptical of Aukus, is spearheading a review to ensure that it meets the criteria of the Trump administration, which emphasizes the prioritization of U.S. defense interests over international commitments.

While defense officials maintain a diplomatic demeanor, indicating that periodic reassessments are standard, there’s an undeniable sense of panic in Australia. Roggeveen highlighted concerns that Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy may lead to a diminished U.S. commitment. “Trump's behavior... should not fill any observer with confidence about America's commitment to its allies," he stated, referencing comments Trump made about foreign conflicts.

Adding to the discontent, previous Australian leaders have voiced their dissent regarding the reassessment. Scott Morrison, the former prime minister who engaged in negotiations for the agreement, dismissed the review's severity, while Malcolm Turnbull cautioned that Australia should be prepared for alternative security agreements.

The political fallout reverberates further with calls from the Greens Party for an independent Australian defense policy that’s not disproportionately reliant on the U.S. The fear persists that if the U.S. were to withdraw from Aukus or undermine its commitments, Australia could face a security vacuum.

Yet, analysts suggest that the U.S. might choose to reaffirm its involvement, noting that Australia’s procurement of five nuclear-powered submarines can bolster the U.S. employment landscape and serve mutual defense interests. However, any prolonged uncertainty could lead to a potential downturn in Australia’s already aging submarine fleet and its defense capability.

In a worse-case scenario where the Aukus deal collapses, experts believe Australia, with a robust budget and strategic planning, retains the means to deter threats even without U.S. involvement. The prevailing view stands: regardless of the outcome of the review, Australia must prepare proactively while navigating its relationship with an unpredictable ally in the changing geopolitical landscape of the Asia-Pacific.