Google Admits Failure in Earthquake Warning System During Turkey Disaster

In a troubling revelation, Google acknowledged that its earthquake early warning system severely underperformed during the catastrophic 2023 earthquakes in Turkey that resulted in over 55,000 deaths. The system failed to deliver critical "Take Action" alerts to the majority of those at risk, emphasizing the challenges and limitations of technological disaster responses.

Google has publicly admitted that its earthquake early warning system failed to effectively alert the populace during the catastrophic earthquakes that struck Turkey in 2023. Out of approximately 10 million people situated within 98 miles of the quake's epicenter, only 469 received Google's urgent "Take Action" warnings intended to provide critical seconds for safety, while around 500,000 were issued a less effective "Be Aware" notice. This situation arose despite Google previously asserting that the system operated effectively.

The earthquakes, measuring 7.8 and subsequently 7.5 in magnitude, resulted in over 55,000 fatalities and left more than 100,000 injured, many of whom were asleep when disaster struck on February 6. Google's early warning system, which primarily services users of Android phones—accounting for over 70% of mobile devices in Turkey—had serious limitations that led to an underestimation of how strong these earthquakes were.

A Google spokesperson emphasized the company's commitment to improving the system based on insights gained from such disasters. Named the Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA), the system detects seismic activity through data from numerous Android devices, allowing for timely warnings. However, during the recent earthquakes, it miscalibrated the intensity, equating the first tremor to a range of 4.5 to 4.9 on the moment magnitude scale instead of the actual 7.8.

Months following the disaster, the BBC sought interviews with individuals who received alerts, but found no one who experienced the more serious warning prior to the event, raising concerns regarding the system's reliability. Research published in the Science journal identified “limitations to the detection algorithms” as a contributing factor to the failure.

After analyzing the earthquakes, Google's researchers modified the algorithm and simulated the initial quake, resulting in over 10 million “Take Action” alerts being generated in this re-evaluation. Post-event analysis also revealed that AEA had issued alerts across 98 countries, highlighting the widespread implications of its performance.

Experts, however, criticized the extensive delay in acknowledging these shortcomings. Elizabeth Reddy, an Assistant Professor at Colorado School of Mines, expressed frustration over the prolonged revelation of the system’s failures, particularly in light of the tragic loss of life. Concerns have been voiced regarding an over-reliance on technology that has yet to be fully vetted for efficacy in large-scale disasters.

Despite being intended as an addition to, rather than a replacement for, traditional national emergency systems, scientists urge caution against assuming the adequacy of tech solutions in earthquake-prone regions. Some warn that the lack of transparency about the operational capacity of such systems could lead to fatal misjudgments by emergency management authorities.

As Google processes feedback and enhances its earthquake alert technology, the company continues to face scrutiny about the performance of AEA during serious seismic events. Inquiries regarding the system’s effectiveness during the 2025 earthquake in Myanmar have gone unanswered as the analysis progresses.