PARIS – France risks losing its third prime minister in just one year as incumbent François Bayrou prepares for a parliamentary confidence vote on Monday that he called but is anticipated to lose. Should this occur, it would signal a deeper instability for the European Union’s second-largest economy.
The 74-year-old centrist prime minister, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron just under nine months ago, hopes the vote will rally lawmakers in the highly divided National Assembly around his proposed public spending cuts, which he argues are necessary to manage France’s increasing state deficit and debts.
However, opposition lawmakers are poised to use this vote as an opportunity to oust Bayrou and his minority government comprised of centrist and right-wing ministers, potentially forcing Macron into yet another exhaustive search for a new leader.
A critical showdown
The National Assembly’s 577 lawmakers are interrupting their summer recess for this extraordinary session that Bayrou requested, set to begin at 3 p.m. (1300 GMT; 0900 EDT) on Monday. Following Bayrou’s anticipated address arguing for the need of fiscal restraint, lawmakers will vote to either support or oppose his government, with abstentions also possible.
To remain in office, Bayrou must secure a majority of votes in favor. Should the tally reflect a majority against him, France’s constitutional framework requires him to submit his government’s resignation to Macron, plunging the nation into renewed uncertainty.
Political inconsistencies
Macron's experience has been costly, stemming from his shocking decision to dissolve the National Assembly in June 2024, hoping the ensuing elections would fortify his pro-European centrist coalition in parliament. Unintentionally, this maneuver led to a fragmented legislature without a singular dominant party controlling the assembly, a first in France’s modern political era.
This political uncertainty has significantly hampered Macron’s domestic agenda during his second and final presidential term, ending in 2027, as he struggles to form a workable majority in parliament. Following the departure of Macron ally Gabriel Attal in September 2024 after a brief stint, and the dramatic ousting of former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, Bayrou now faces an uphill climb against unfavorable parliamentary dynamics.
Bayrou's discontent
Opposition from both far-right and left-wing lawmakers threatens Bayrou’s stability, as they command over 320 seats compared to the 210 held by centrists and allied conservatives. In comments made prior to the vote, Bayrou expressed frustration over what he perceives as a futile endeavor to topple a government formed by parties who fundamentally disagree on most issues.
What’s the point of bringing down the government? These are political groups that not only don’t agree on anything but, far worse than that, are waging open civil war against each other,” he shared in an interview.
France's pressing issues
If Bayrou loses the confidence vote, Macron will face the daunting task of finding a successor to address ongoing critical budget issues faced by Bayrou and preceding prime ministers. Although Macron has committed to serving until the end of his term, he risks losing more political efficacy domestically if the deadlock continues.
The prime minister plays a critical role under French governance, managing domestic policies while the president wields significant authority over foreign matters. Bayrou is advocating for strict cuts to counteract a looming financial crisis, proposing to slash 44 billion euros ($51 billion) in spending for 2026, tracking a deficit of 5.8% of the gross domestic product last year, significantly surpassing the EU’s 3% ceiling.
Accompanied by a burgeoning debt crisis, with public debt totaling 3.346 trillion euros or 114% of GDP as of early 2025, France grapples with severe budget constraints. Bayrou's austerity measures, which include eliminating two public holidays, have attracted heavy criticism and now present political rivals with an unprecedented chance to provide his government with the final blow.
