The draft US-Russia peace plan has been widely leaked and we now know that it proposes to hand over those areas of Ukraine's industrial eastern Donbas region still under Ukrainian control to the de facto control of Vladimir Putin's Russia.
Latest versions of the text also call for Ukraine to cut the size of its armed forces to 600,000 people.
But what else is known about the text and who stands to benefit from it most?

Key Points of the Draft

There are 28 key points and several appear to be acceptable to Ukraine, while others are vague and imprecise. Ukraine's sovereignty would be 'confirmed' with a comprehensive non-aggression agreement and a demand for snap elections. However, details about security guarantees lack clarity, raising concerns for Kyiv.

Controversial Territorial Handover and Military Reduction

Among the most contentious proposals are the handover of unoccupied territory and the reduction of Ukraine's armed forces. Provisions state that Ukrainian forces will withdraw from parts of Donetsk Oblast, designating these as neutral zones recognized by Russia. This is met with significant resistance from many Ukrainians who live in these areas.

The draft also limits Ukraine's military to 600,000 personnel, which Ukrainian representatives find unacceptable.

Ukraine's Strategic Future

The draft details commitments regarding Ukraine’s future alignment, specifically rejecting NATO membership while allowing for EU eligibility. These provisions raise questions about Ukraine's sovereignty and strategic autonomy, particularly as they contradict existing constitutional mandates.

Impacts on Russia and the Draft's Viability

Several points in the draft suggest reintegrating Russia into the global economy and even proposing to lift sanctions, indicating concessions that could favor Moscow. However, solidifying peace is fraught with complications, and the plan is viewed by some as a wishlist catering to Russian interests.

Conclusion

The proposals in the leaked plan may represent a significant shift in US policy regarding the Ukraine conflict. However, as international discussions continue, the plan's feasibility and implications for regional security remain highly contentious.