Examining Crime Trends in Washington DC Amid Trump's Claims

President Trump asserts that crime in Washington DC is rampant and plans to send in National Guard troops, while local data shows a significant decrease in violent crime. This article analyzes the discrepancies between Trump's claims and the actual crime statistics as reported by the Metropolitan Police of DC and the FBI.

President Donald Trump recently asserted that crime in Washington DC is "out of control" and announced plans to deploy National Guard troops to the city in an effort to tackle it. During a press conference, he dramatized the situation, proclaiming it "Liberation Day" and indicating the need to "rescue our nation's capital from crime, bloodshed, bedlam and squalor."

In stark contrast, DC Mayor Muriel Bowser emphasized that crime has actually seen a significant decrease, noting the city has reached a 30-year low in violent crime rates. The Metropolitan Police Department of Washington DC (MPDC) has reported that after a peak in 2023, violent offenses have dropped, with 2024 witnessing the lowest levels in three decades. Preliminary data for 2025 indicates that this trend is continuing, with violent crime overall down 26% year-over-year, and robbery rates down by 28%.

President Trump’s declaration, which cites a "crime emergency," claims an increase in violence. However, according to the MPDC, the figures suggest otherwise - a 35% fall in crime was reported for 2024, although FBI statistics recorded a lesser decrease of 9%. Analysts such as Adam Gelb, CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), acknowledge the discrepancy between the two datasets but mostly agree that a considerable decrease in violence has been evident since the summer of 2023.

Trump also claimed that murder rates in the city were at their highest, referencing a spike in 2023 at approximately 40 per 100,000 residents, the highest in two decades. However, this figure is notably lower when compared to homicide rates from the 1990s and early 2000s. The MPDC notes that the homicide rate fell by 12% this year compared to last year.

In terms of carjackings, Trump alleged that incidents had tripled in the past five years. Yet, MPDC reports show carjacking offenses have decreased from 300 last year to 189 this year. A curfew for minors has been implemented as part of efforts to curb juvenile crimes, including carjackings, which have seen a rise since 2020.

An analysis by the CCJ indicates that while the level of violence in DC remains higher than the average for many major U.S. cities, the recent trends align with national patterns of decreasing crime. Specifically, the homicide rate in DC fell by 19% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, slightly outperforming the 17% average decline across 30 other major cities in the study sample.

As the conversation around crime in Washington DC continues, it is essential to scrutinize both the statistics and the narratives shaping public perception.