Rising Threats: The Surge of JNIM in West Africa

JNIM, an al-Qaeda offshoot formed in Mali in 2017, is rapidly expanding its operations while implementing a strict interpretation of Islam across West Africa. Its recent surge in violent attacks raises alarm about the potential destabilization of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

The al-Qaeda affiliate, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), has emerged as one of Africa's most lethal militant groups, driving a troubling increase in jihadist violence across West Africa. Central to the chaos are Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, nations grappling with the group's relentless assault on their military and civilian infrastructures.

On July 1, JNIM showcased its strength by executing a large-scale, coordinated strike on seven military installations in western Mali, a maneuver that underscores the group’s expanding operational boundaries within the Sahel. The alarming growth of JNIM coincides with a wave of military coups in these countries over the past five years, which have failed to curb the rising tide of violence.

Formed in 2017 as a coalition of five jihadist organizations post-French military intervention in Mali, JNIM quickly solidified its notoriety as a formidable force in the region, led by Iyad Ag Ghali, a former diplomat with ties to the Tuareg uprising. The group’s influence is largely felt among local communities, where it exploits socio-economic grievances to bolster its ranks, consisting mainly of disillusioned young men.

JNIM’s ambitions extend beyond mere rebellion; the group seeks to impose its austere interpretation of Islam upon the populace, enforcing rigid codes of conduct that have bred resentment among local communities. While such practices stray from traditional Islamic practices, the failure of local governments to meet citizens' needs makes extremist solutions more appealing, marking a dangerous trajectory for the Sahel region.

Operationally, JNIM is entrenched in Mali and throughout Burkina Faso, where it has intensified attacks significantly. Reports indicate a staggering rise in violent incidents, with JNIM claiming to have executed over 280 assaults merely in the first half of 2025, doubling prior statistics.

The group employs a multifaceted tactical approach, including the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), targeted military bases, and the involvement of civilians perceived as government collaborators. Having adapted modern technology like satellite internet to streamline operations, JNIM exemplifies an evolved threat in contemporary jihadist tactics.

Financially, the group benefits from various income streams ranging from cattle rustling to imposing taxes on local businesses, an essential lifeline amid increased military pressure. During a period where international counterinsurgency efforts faced setbacks, JNIM thrived, largely due to the premature withdrawal of foreign military support and unsteady governance stemming from military coups.

The rise of military juntas in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali may paradoxically enhance JNIM's recruitment capabilities, as poor governance and human rights violations contribute to public disillusionment. Reports of civilian atrocities underscore the need for a refined approach to countering extremism, suggesting that military solutions alone may prove inadequate for lasting stability in the region.

As JNIM consolidates power and influence in West Africa, the future of the Sahel remains uncertain, with the potential for widespread conflict even more pronounced without effective governance and community engagement strategies to counter radical narratives.