The Lancet reveals that US funding cuts to international aid could result in over 14 million avoidable deaths by 2030, disproportionately impacting children and vulnerable populations in low- and middle-income countries.
Trump’s Foreign Aid Cuts Projected to Cause Over 14 Million Deaths by 2030
Trump’s Foreign Aid Cuts Projected to Cause Over 14 Million Deaths by 2030
A new report suggests that drastic reductions in US foreign aid under the Trump administration could lead to catastrophic mortality rates, particularly among children.
Article text:
A recent report published in The Lancet has alarmingly projected that proposed cuts to United States foreign humanitarian aid under the Trump administration could provoke over 14 million excess deaths by the year 2030. This grim forecast highlights that roughly one-third of those at risk of dying prematurely are children. The analysis posits that the drastic reduction in aid represents a shock "comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict," stated Davide Rasella, co-author of the study.
In March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that upwards of 80% of all programs funded by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) have been eliminated under the current administration. The cuts were portrayed by the Trump administration as a necessary step to eliminate "wasteful spending." Notably, Elon Musk oversaw these cutbacks as he led initiatives aimed at decreasing the federal workforce.
During his second presidential term, Trump has consistently emphasized his preference for aligning foreign spending with his "America First" doctrine. The report from The Lancet underscores that the reduction of USAID funding could "risk abruptly halting - and even reversing - two decades of progress in health among vulnerable populations," according to Rasella, a researcher affiliated with the Barcelona Institute for Global Health.
The study indicates that USAID funding has historically prevented over 90 million deaths in developing countries from 2001 to 2021. Researchers modeled harrowing projections based on proposed 83% funding cuts, estimating a staggering rise in preventable deaths, including more than 4.5 million fatalities among children under five.
The findings emerged as world leaders convened in Seville, Spain, for a major United Nations-led aid conference—the largest of its kind in a decade—with the US notably absent from attendance. As the global leader in humanitarian aid, the US has operated across more than 60 countries, with a reported expenditure of $68 billion (£55 billion) on international assistance in 2023.
USAID has been deemed crucial to the global aid framework, leading to ripple effects as other nations—like the UK, France, and Germany—began to scale back their aid commitments in response to US funding reductions. Humanitarian organizations widely condemned these actions, with the UN recently declaring the deepest funding cuts to the international humanitarian sector they have ever encountered.
Rubio indicated in his March statements that about 1,000 US programs would continue, purportedly to be administered "more effectively" under the State Department in coordination with Congress. However, the reality on the ground remains dire, as conveyed by UN officials who noted that hundreds of thousands are facing starvation in Kenyan refugee camps due to diminished food supply resulting from US aid cuts. A BBC report from a Kakuma hospital illustrated the harsh consequences, portraying infants exhibiting severe malnutrition indicators.
The overall message resonates: without reinstating or preserving foreign aid, the repercussions on global health and child survival could be catastrophic.
A recent report published in The Lancet has alarmingly projected that proposed cuts to United States foreign humanitarian aid under the Trump administration could provoke over 14 million excess deaths by the year 2030. This grim forecast highlights that roughly one-third of those at risk of dying prematurely are children. The analysis posits that the drastic reduction in aid represents a shock "comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict," stated Davide Rasella, co-author of the study.
In March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that upwards of 80% of all programs funded by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) have been eliminated under the current administration. The cuts were portrayed by the Trump administration as a necessary step to eliminate "wasteful spending." Notably, Elon Musk oversaw these cutbacks as he led initiatives aimed at decreasing the federal workforce.
During his second presidential term, Trump has consistently emphasized his preference for aligning foreign spending with his "America First" doctrine. The report from The Lancet underscores that the reduction of USAID funding could "risk abruptly halting - and even reversing - two decades of progress in health among vulnerable populations," according to Rasella, a researcher affiliated with the Barcelona Institute for Global Health.
The study indicates that USAID funding has historically prevented over 90 million deaths in developing countries from 2001 to 2021. Researchers modeled harrowing projections based on proposed 83% funding cuts, estimating a staggering rise in preventable deaths, including more than 4.5 million fatalities among children under five.
The findings emerged as world leaders convened in Seville, Spain, for a major United Nations-led aid conference—the largest of its kind in a decade—with the US notably absent from attendance. As the global leader in humanitarian aid, the US has operated across more than 60 countries, with a reported expenditure of $68 billion (£55 billion) on international assistance in 2023.
USAID has been deemed crucial to the global aid framework, leading to ripple effects as other nations—like the UK, France, and Germany—began to scale back their aid commitments in response to US funding reductions. Humanitarian organizations widely condemned these actions, with the UN recently declaring the deepest funding cuts to the international humanitarian sector they have ever encountered.
Rubio indicated in his March statements that about 1,000 US programs would continue, purportedly to be administered "more effectively" under the State Department in coordination with Congress. However, the reality on the ground remains dire, as conveyed by UN officials who noted that hundreds of thousands are facing starvation in Kenyan refugee camps due to diminished food supply resulting from US aid cuts. A BBC report from a Kakuma hospital illustrated the harsh consequences, portraying infants exhibiting severe malnutrition indicators.
The overall message resonates: without reinstating or preserving foreign aid, the repercussions on global health and child survival could be catastrophic.
