The asteroid 2024 YR4 poses a 3.1% risk of impacting Earth in December 2032. While its size and potential damage are concerning, most of its path crosses uninhabited areas. The scientific community is monitoring this developing situation closely.
Rising Concern: Asteroid 2024 YR4 Becomes Leading Threat to Earth
Rising Concern: Asteroid 2024 YR4 Becomes Leading Threat to Earth
Astronomers have identified asteroid 2024 YR4 as having the highest likelihood of impacting Earth, surpassing even the infamous Apophis.
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Astronomers have recently reported that the asteroid known as 2024 YR4 has emerged as the most threatening space rock predicted to collide with Earth, with its risk level exceeding that of the previously feared Apophis. First detected in December 2024, this asteroid measures between 130 to 300 feet in length and is projected to make a perilously close approach to our planet in 2032, with a 3.1 percent chance of hitting Earth on December 22.
This new assessment raises alarms, particularly as Apophis, which was discovered in 2004, initially posed a 2.7 percent risk of collision with Earth in 2029. However, subsequent observations have since eliminated its threat for the next century. In contrast, the potential impact of 2024 YR4, although it is smaller, still bears a significant capacity to inflict catastrophic damage.
A vital factor in assessing the potential devastation lies in the asteroid's trajectory. While much of its projected path travels over vast oceans, there remains a slim likelihood of collision with major urban centers, including Bogotá, Lagos, and Mumbai.
Scientists gauge the risk of an asteroid's impact predominantly by its kinetic energy, which is influenced by both its speed—averaging about 38,000 miles per hour—and its mass. As information on 2024 YR4 is still limited, estimations of its mass—and consequently the energy it would unleash upon impact—remain uncertain.
Mark Boslough, a physicist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, emphasized the ambiguity surrounding the asteroid's density and structural composition, noting the importance of further analysis to ascertain the true risk it poses to Earth. Although the immediate threat level is categorized as low, experts are maintaining vigilant observation of 2024 YR4 as its trajectory approaches closer to our planet.
Astronomers have recently reported that the asteroid known as 2024 YR4 has emerged as the most threatening space rock predicted to collide with Earth, with its risk level exceeding that of the previously feared Apophis. First detected in December 2024, this asteroid measures between 130 to 300 feet in length and is projected to make a perilously close approach to our planet in 2032, with a 3.1 percent chance of hitting Earth on December 22.
This new assessment raises alarms, particularly as Apophis, which was discovered in 2004, initially posed a 2.7 percent risk of collision with Earth in 2029. However, subsequent observations have since eliminated its threat for the next century. In contrast, the potential impact of 2024 YR4, although it is smaller, still bears a significant capacity to inflict catastrophic damage.
A vital factor in assessing the potential devastation lies in the asteroid's trajectory. While much of its projected path travels over vast oceans, there remains a slim likelihood of collision with major urban centers, including Bogotá, Lagos, and Mumbai.
Scientists gauge the risk of an asteroid's impact predominantly by its kinetic energy, which is influenced by both its speed—averaging about 38,000 miles per hour—and its mass. As information on 2024 YR4 is still limited, estimations of its mass—and consequently the energy it would unleash upon impact—remain uncertain.
Mark Boslough, a physicist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, emphasized the ambiguity surrounding the asteroid's density and structural composition, noting the importance of further analysis to ascertain the true risk it poses to Earth. Although the immediate threat level is categorized as low, experts are maintaining vigilant observation of 2024 YR4 as its trajectory approaches closer to our planet.
